U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
119 National Center
Reston, VA 20192

Release
February 14, 2000

Contact:
Donna Runkle     703-648-4469
Trudy Harlow     703-648-4483


The Future of Planet Earth:
Scientific Challenges in the Coming Century

From urban growth to infectious diseases and newly identified contaminants
in water, greater demands are being placed on our planet's natural
resources.  Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey are tackling these
new scientific challenges as they emerge.

"The United States and the world face significant challenges in the years
to come," said Charles Groat, director of the U.S. Geological Survey.
"Over the past century, humans have become agents of significant change to
our planet.  We have reshaped rivers and coastlines. We have brought new
species of plants and animals to places they could never have reached on
their own.  And, we have increased our vulnerability to the extreme events
that are part of Earth's natural processes?earthquakes, floods, volcanoes,
landslides, droughts, and hurricanes."

As the global population continues to grow, he added, people will place
greater and greater demands on the resources of our planet, including
mineral and energy resources, open space, water, and plant and animal
resources.  As a result of these changing demands and needs, said Groat,
USGS scientists see 10 top scientific challenges for the next century.

Safe, Clean Water

    Protecting drinking water sources:  Safe drinking water is vital to the
health of citizens in every community.  Reliance on water treatment plants
and chlorination is important to safe drinking water but it is clear that
strategies must go beyond treatment to protection of water sources.
Increasing urbanization of land used as sources of drinking water,
microbial pathogens resistant to chlorination, and proliferation of new
synthetic chemical compounds that may have adverse health effects, are
challenging the effectiveness of treatment technology. The 21st century
will see increased awareness that drinking water supplies are whole systems
that include source-water areas, ground-water wells and surface-water
intakes, treatment plants and distribution systems.  USGS scientists are
helping communities protect their drinking water sources by designing
computer models and other tools and conducting research to help communities
identify, manage, and protect source water areas.  For more information
contact USGS scientists Mike Focazio at 703-648-6808 or Glenn Patterson at
703-648-6876.
    Newly identified contaminants in water:  Continual development and
production of new chemical compounds has dramatically improved food
quality, human health and our daily lives.  Increasing knowledge of the
close relationship between human activities and the environment has made it
clear that the chemical compounds we use can find their way into the
nation's water resources. Preliminary results from a USGS study indicate
that many compounds commonly used in everyday life are turning up at very
low concentrations in streams across the country.  Examples of some of the
compounds found to date include acetaminophen, caffeine, codeine, cotinine
(a nicotine metabolite), 17b-estradiol (a hormone), and sulfamethoxazole
(an antibiotic).  For many of these compounds, the USGS study will provide
the earliest data on their environmental occurrence in the nation.  The
impacts of these chemicals on humans or aquatic life, at the low
concentrations they are found in the environment, are generally unknown,
but the USGS is working in partnership with health and environmental
science agencies as the study proceeds.  Analytical methods for measuring
these newly identified contaminants were developed in the USGS National
Water Quality Lab located in Denver, Colorado.
More information about newly identified contaminants in water is available
at http://toxics.usgs.gov/regional/emc.html or by contacting USGS
scientists Herb Buxton at 609-771-3944, Ed Furlong at 303-236-3941, or Dana
Kolpin at 319-358-3614.
    Nutrients:  A major scientific issue in the early part of the 21st
century will be the eutrophication of water?the presence of excess amounts
of the nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus that cause increased growth of
aquatic plants, which consume the dissolved oxygen in water needed by other
aquatic life. Growth of the human population will increase the demand for
food.  This will in turn lead to further increases in the use of
fertilizers, which could put even more stress on coastal areas, as well as
freshwater bodies.  USGS scientists are measuring the transport of nitrogen
and phosphorus to coastal areas by major rivers and determining how much of
the nutrients that enter the streams actually move downstream and how much
is lost or transformed to harmless forms.  More information on the
nutrients is available in the report, "The Quality of Our Nation's
Waters?Nutrients and Pesticides," at
http://water.usgs.gov/pubs/circ/circ1225/ or contact USGS scientist Pixie
Hamilton at 804-261-2602. More information is available about nutrients in
the Mississippi basin and Gulf of Mexico at
http://wwwrcolka.cr.usgs.gov/midconherb/ or from USGS scientists Don
Goolsby at 303-236-5950x209 or Richard Alexander at 703-648-6869.

Natural Hazards

The year 1999 brought killer landslides to Venezuela and Mexico,
devastating earthquakes to Turkey and Taiwan, and massive floods and
coastal storm erosion along the East Coast of the United States that took
lives, displaced families, disrupted communities and impacted economies.
The cost of natural disasters, both in human and financial terms, has risen
dramatically and may continue to skyrocket in the 21st century, as the
world's population grows and moves into areas that are more vulnerable to
earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, landslides, floods and other natural
hazards. The work by USGS scientists helps understand how and where these
natural events occur, so people can build and live safely on the Earth.
The real-time information about floods, earthquakes and other hazards
provided by the USGS helps people respond quickly and effectively when
disaster strikes and provides important scientific data used by decision
makers for planning and developing new policies. More information is
available about USGS work in natural hazards at
http://www.usgs.gov/natural_haz.html or from USGS scientist Tim Cohn at
703-648-5711.

Urban Growth

With the population of the United States projected to increase nearly 60
percent in the next 50 years and an increasing percentage of the nation's
population moving to urban areas, society is just beginning to experience
the challenges associated with the sustainable growth and development of
urban regions.  In this new century USGS scientists will participate in
greater efforts to:
· understand land use change in large metropolitan regions;
· assess the impacts of these changes on regional ecosystems and resources;
· enhance and apply technology for monitoring, analyzing and predicting
rates, patterns and impacts of landscape changes resulting from natural and
human causes; and
· provide decision makers with accurate data and better understanding for
improved decision making, policy and planning.
More information is available about USGS urban growth studies at
http://edcwww2.cr.usgs.gov/urban/ or from USGS scientist Dave Kirtland at
703-648-4712.

Emerging Infectious Disease

Vulnerability to disease?for humans and wildlife? increases as the human
population expands and habitat for wildlife shrinks. Diseases become more
easily transmissible in and between the two populations. Some diseases,
such as Lyme disease, West Nile virus, plague, hantavirus and rabies are
transmitted directly or indirectly to humans by wildlife. USGS scientists
are measuring, monitoring and recording changes in wildlife populations to
identify disease threats and diagnose them promptly and accurately; they
also are mapping the spread and distribution of global diseases based on
the ecological conditions necessary for the survival of specific pathogens
in nature. This information helps health professionals identify which
geographic areas are potentially threatened, to determine which populations
are at risk now and in the future, and to more accurately predict when an
outbreak might occur and understand how it can be controlled.  More
information about wildlife research or epidemiological investigations is
available at http://www.umesc.usgs.gov/nwhchome.html or from USGS scientist
Paul Slota at 608-270-2420. For more information on environmental
influences and mapping the spread and distribution of these global
diseases, contact USGS scientist Steve C. Guptill at 703-648-4520.

Biological Invaders

Invasive species, such as zebra mussels, fire ants and cheatgrass, are
those plants and animals that have been introduced into habitats where they
are not native. Considered "biological pollutants," they are a major cause
of economic havoc and biological diversity loss throughout the world.  USGS
scientists help to reduce economic and biological losses caused by these
invaders by discovering the best pest-control methods, identifying and
monitoring potentially threatening new invasive species and developing
strategies for re-establishment and protection of native communities.  For
more information on how invasive species change the face of America's
landscapes and waters, contact William Gregg at 703-648-4067. More specific
information on these invaders and color photos are available at
http://www.usgs.gov/invasive_species/.

Global Change

The planet is changing. Records show sea levels are rising at accelerated
rates and levels of carbon dioxide have increased worldwide. The West
Antarctic Ice Sheet, which contains enough water locked up as ice to raise
global sea-level substantially, is vulnerable to the effects of global
change.  The flyways of migratory birds, butterflies and shorebirds, as
well as stopovers of migrating sea turtles, have been altered.  Some of the
preliminary indicators of change?coral reefs, seagrass and mangrove
communities?are among the most biologically complex ecosystems on earth.
USGS scientists are monitoring these processes and changes by measuring
glaciers, mapping coral reefs, assessing sea-level rise and its effects on
coastal areas, monitoring volcanic emissions, assessing carbon storage and
movement and looking at potential future changes in hydrology, climate and
vegetation patterns, and storm effects on coastal systems.  More
information about global change is available at
http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/ or contact USGS scientist Elliot Spiker at
703-648-5330.  For more information about glaciers, contact USGS scientist
Bruce Molnia at 703-648-4120.

Lifecycle of Earth's Natural Materials

Materials extracted from the Earth are necessary for humankind's most
fundamental needs?food, clothing and shelter.  Understanding the whole
system of materials flow, from source to ultimate disposition, can help
people better manage the use of natural resources and protect the
environment. Materials flow is a systems approach to understanding what
happens to the materials we use?from geologic formation, extraction, use
and reuse, to ultimate disposal. Accurate models of materials flow will
provide communities and planners, economists and governments, the
information they need to ensure continued economic growth and development
in the United States.  Future energy requirements, building supplies and
the potential for pollution and waste are all issues that require sound
scientific data and modeling. For more information about materials flow,
contact USGS scientist Kate Johnson at 703-648-6110.

The Nation's Water Infrastructure

The objectives for the nation's infrastructure of dams, levees, navigation
systems and diversions for water were developed between 1930 and 1970, with
an emphasis on water for agriculture, electric power, navigation, flood
prevention, water for cities and industry and dilution of wastes.  These
objectives are still valid, but the values and laws under which these
systems operate today have a number of added objectives: enhancement of
aquatic and streamside or riparian habitat, recreational opportunities and
a general desire for preservation of natural environments for future
generations.  These challenges will require that scientists work
collaboratively with water managers to predict how changes in the
management of our water infrastructure will affect its traditional goals
and serve the newer environmental goals.  USGS scientists are looking at
the physical and biological results of modifying or removing these systems.
For more information about the nation's water infrastructure, contact USGS
Chief Hydrologist Robert Hirsch at 703-648-5215.

Coastal Waters?Pristine or Polluted?

The earth's seemingly boundless oceans and scenic coastlines have limits.
The oceans cannot provide unlimited fish to feed growing populations, nor
can they absorb unlimited wastes from human activity.
As population growth near and adjacent to the coasts increases water
quality and ecosystems are impacted and vulnerable shorelines are eroded.
Algal blooms, oxygen deficient zones and Pfiesteria are some of the
negative impacts resulting from excess nutrients that end up in coastal
waters. Even after discharge waters are cleaned up, previously deposited
contaminated sediments on the sea floor  can be "churned up" by storm waves
and continue to negatively impact the offshore ecosystems. USGS scientists
are locating, characterizing and quantifying how these sediments and
associated contaminants are distributed.  More information about coastal
water conditions is available at http://marine.usgs.gov or contact USGS
scientist Jeff Williams at 703-648-6511.

Putting Information in Its Place

During the 21st century the nation will continue to face challenges such as
overpopulation and urban growth, pollution, deforestation and natural
disasters?all of which have a critical geographic dimension.  As a result,
there will be an increase in the demand for geospatial data and
information.  This potential demand has raised the concern for how these
data will be integrated, managed and made accessible to a multitude of
users.  As the nation's largest civilian mapping agency, the USGS will be a
leader in developing ways to bring together multiple layers of geospatial
data (such as elevation, hydrographic, transportation, etc.) from a variety
of sources and integrate them into a widely accessible, national dataset.
Standardization of these datasets will play an important role in allowing
users to widely share the data.  In addition, technologies such as
Geographic Information Systems (GIS), a computer-based tool for mapping and
analyzing what exists and what happens on earth, will play a key role in
allowing users to create maps, integrate information, visualize scenarios,
solve complicated problems, present powerful ideas and develop effective
solutions.  In the next century there will be greater efforts to:
· collect, integrate, manage, and archive geospatial data to ensure
availability to the nation,
· capitalize on technological advancements, and
· educate users on the application and analysis of data to enhance better
decision making.
For more information about the integration, management and accessibility of
geospatial data, contact USGS Chief Geographer Richard Witmer at
703-648-5748.

As the nation's largest water, earth and biological science, and civilian
mapping agency, the USGS works in cooperation with more than 2,000
organizations across the country to provide reliable, impartial scientific
information to resource managers, planners, and other customers. This
information is gathered in every state by USGS scientists to minimize the
loss of life and property from natural disasters, contribute to the sound
conservation and the economic and physical development of the nation's
natural resources, and enhance the quality of life by monitoring water,
biological, energy, and mineral resources.

                       * * USGS * * *